The Nagaon Parliamentary Constituency will hold a bypoll on October 6 after MP Pradyut Bordoloi, a Congress member, resigned to contest the Assam Assembly election as a BJP candidate. Sixteen candidates will contest, with the BJP, Congress and AIUDF fielding the main contenders.
Delimitation in 2023 based on the 2001 census gives the seat 1,891,150 voters, of which 10.04% are Scheduled Castes and 9.06% are Scheduled Tribes. The constituency includes eight assembly segments, four held by BJP, three by Congress and one by Raijor Dal. Muslims form about 55% of the electorate, with Hindus making up the remaining 45%, making the seat one of the few in Assam where Muslims are the majority.
The close balance between the two communities means that religious mobilisation can swing the vote. Historically, Muslims in Assam have leaned toward Congress until AIUDF’s emergence in 2006, after which the BJP has gained ground through welfare schemes and fear‑based politics. In the 2024 parliamentary election, the BJP won Karimganj, a Muslim‑majority seat, with a margin smaller than AIUDF’s vote share, illustrating how a split in the Muslim vote can benefit the BJP.
Congress has nominated Shibamoni Bora, a native of Nagaon, signalling a bid to regain trust among indigenous Hindus while maintaining its Muslim base. AIUDF, with only two MLAs and no MPs, seeks to revive its relevance in the post‑delimitation landscape and may need an alliance with the Congress‑led Mahajot to counter the BJP and Congress dominance. The outcome in Nagaon will test both parties’ ability to navigate a nearly even Hindu‑Muslim electorate and could reshape Assam’s political equations.
