The Lowy Institute, an Australian policy think tank, has warned that China may eventually abandon its Gwadar port, citing mounting economic costs and security risks that threaten the viability of the China‑Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The port, a flagship of the Belt and Road Initiative, relies on goods shipped from Xinjiang to cross Gilgit‑Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. These regions suffer from sectarian violence, Taliban activity and entrenched insurgencies. In addition, the Karakoram Highway, which links the route, sits above 4,600 metres and is prone to landslides, avalanches and extreme weather, making high‑volume container traffic difficult.
Gwadar has become a frequent target for insurgent groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). Chinese engineering units, convoys and infrastructure have been repeatedly struck by sophisticated suicide bombings and guerrilla ambushes. The BLA’s Majeed Brigade has evolved from low‑intensity skirmishes to high‑yield suicide strikes, turning the port into a high‑risk target.
Pakistan has responded by raising dedicated Special Security Divisions, yet they have failed to protect Chinese infrastructure. The report notes that Gwadar is approaching a tipping point: Pakistan cannot afford to secure or maintain the port, and China is growing weary of sacrificing capital and lives to defend a commercial failure.
Consequently, the Lowy Institute forecasts a quiet retreat, with China downscaling its operational footprint. The port could shift from a vibrant commercial mega‑port to a heavily fortified naval refuelling station, and the lease may eventually be restructured to cut losses.
