A 52‑year study of India’s climate extremes has found that the Northeast is experiencing a rise in intense one‑day rainfall alongside more frequent dry spells, indicating increasing instability in the region’s monsoon.
The analysis of weather data from 1971 to 2022 showed that the Northeast was the only part of India to exhibit a statistically significant increase in extreme one‑day rainfall. At the same time, the region has seen more frequent dry spells and drought conditions.
The research, published in the International Journal of Climatology, was carried out by scientists from the India Meteorological Department and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. It combined seven climate hazards into a revised India Climate Extremes Index and used the Mann‑Kendall statistical method to assess trends. The study covered Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim.
Lead author Thota Mohan and co‑author M Rajeevan note that the combination of heavier downpours and longer dry periods could create greater challenges for the region, where floods and water stress already affect agriculture, infrastructure and communities. The authors recommend strengthening flood preparedness, improving rainfall‑variability management, and adopting a cross‑sectoral response that includes agriculture, water management, health and infrastructure, along with more detailed localised monitoring.
