India has become a key source of diesel for Europe, supplying about 60 percent of the fuel transiting the Bab‑el‑Mandeb to the region in August. In that month, roughly 200,000 barrels per day of diesel (gasoil) passed through the strait on vessels bound for Europe, close to year‑earlier levels after a sharp slowdown in March and April. Russian exports remain severely constrained and U.S. shipments are beginning to weaken, according to real‑time data from Vortexa.
India is the world’s fourth‑largest refiner, with an installed capacity of 258.1 million tonnes per annum that exceeds domestic demand. In the 2025‑26 fiscal year (April 2025 to March 2026), India exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products, making it one of the largest exporters of refined products globally. These fuels are now finding markets in Europe and Russia.
The ability to sustain this flow is uncertain. Crude and condensate shipments into India fell for a second consecutive month to about 3.8 million barrels per day in August, compared with 4.8 million barrels per day a year earlier. Russian diesel exports, once a major source for Europe, averaged only about 150,000 barrels per day in the first 25 days of August, down 81 percent from the five‑year seasonal average. Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted Russian refining, with 32 attacks on refineries in July and August and a strike on the 260,000‑barrel‑per‑day Perm refinery that left only 28 percent of its capacity operational.
Export terminals have been affected as well. The Black Sea accounted for roughly 44 percent of Russia’s diesel and gasoil exports last year, but port and refinery disruptions have reduced available volumes. No diesel cargoes have been shipped from Tuapse since a May strike, and the port handled about 90,000 barrels per day in 2025. Russia has turned to imports to compensate for domestic refining disruptions, with seaborne gasoline imports reaching a record 125,000 barrels per day in August. India, Turkey and Morocco supplied a portion of those imports, and Indian gasoline cargoes to Russia in August were carried on sanctioned fleets.
Europe’s dependence on Indian refiners has grown as U.S. supply declined. The U.S. supplied about 520,000 barrels per day of Europe’s seaborne diesel imports in August, down from a quarter of that figure a year earlier. Shipments peaked at almost 540,000 barrels per day in the first half of August before falling to about 350,000 barrels per day in the second half, a 35 percent decline. The Strait of Hormuz offered limited relief, with only 37 crossings by MR2‑sized or larger tankers carrying clean products in the first 27 days of August, compared with 55 in July and 69 in June. Ship‑to‑ship transfers offshore Oman were mainly crude, transferring about 230,000 barrels per day of clean products in early August versus 400,000 barrels per day in the same period in June. The result is an increasingly concentrated European diesel supply chain, with India carrying a growing share amid low inventories and upcoming refinery maintenance as Europe approaches its peak winter diesel‑demand period.
