The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has warned that El Niño, a climate pattern of unusually warm Pacific waters, may intensify in the coming months to become one of the strongest on record since 1950. According to NOAA’s monthly bulletin, there is an 81 per cent chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December, which would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record.
El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a naturally occurring ocean-atmosphere interaction that influences global weather patterns and can trigger extreme weather, droughts, and heatwaves across the globe. El Niño has a general warming impact on the planet and suppresses rainfall over the Indian region. This year, the monsoon in India is expected to be well below normal, mainly due to the developing El Niño.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast slightly below-normal rainfall over the country till July 22, with normal rainfall expected in Rajasthan, parts of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and north interior Karnataka. Met experts believe that the subdued rainfall in July, which accounts for India’s highest seasonal rainfall, could be the first signs of El Niño’s impact. The IMD has forecast rainfall at below 94 per cent of the long period average this July.
The current El Niño event began in June and is predicted to intensify and continue into 2027. The NOAA said the Niño 3.4 index had crossed 1.2°C, still in the moderate range. An El Niño is usually considered strong when the Niño 3.4 index goes beyond 1.5°C, and very strong when it crosses 2°C. The strength of an El Niño phase is also dependent on how long it persists.
The NOAA bulletin said the current El Niño phase was almost certain to continue through the early part of next year, with a 97 per cent chance it will last through early spring 2027. This could have significant implications for India, which has already experienced severe droughts and heatwaves in the past due to strong El Niño events. The 2015-2016 El Niño, termed Godzilla, was the strongest in recent memory and persisted for almost two years, breaking several climate records. Other very strong El Niño phases occurred in 1991-92, 1997-98, and 1982-83.
