Merz Faces Pressure as AfD Gains in German State Elections

Polling is underway on Sunday in two German state elections that could reshape Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s authority and his ability to push through economic reforms in Europe’s largest economy. The contests are held in Berlin, the national capital, and in Mecklenburg‑Western Pomerania, a largely rural region in the former communist east that remains economically less affluent. The outcome of these elections is closely watched because the far‑right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has gained significant traction in recent polls.

The voting follows just two weeks after the AfD narrowly missed an overall majority in Saxony‑Anhalt, a small eastern state where the party now has its strongest opportunity to form a far‑right regional government for the first time since World War II. Merz’s leadership was hit hard by his party’s heavy defeat in that September election, shocking a population that had long assumed that post‑Nazi education and legal protections would keep nationalism and racial ideology at bay.

Merz’s centre‑right Christian Democratic Union faces a bleak outlook. In Berlin the AfD could win the mayor’s office, and in Mecklenburg‑Western Pomerania the CDU could fail to secure any seats in the state legislature for the first time by falling below the 5 percent threshold, where it was already weak. The AfD, while expected to make further gains, lacks a practical path to power in Berlin and faces stiffer resistance from Mecklenburg‑Western Pomerania’s centre‑left governor than it encountered in Saxony‑Anhalt.

Merz, 70, who became Germany’s leader 16 months ago with promises to revive an economy that has barely grown, has become deeply unpopular. Calls to replace him have surfaced within his own party, but no top‑level allies have publicly demanded his departure, and many have warned against “personnel debates.” Anticipating a tough postelection period, Merz canceled a planned trip to New York to attend the U.N. General Assembly. Despite the headwinds, he has repeatedly stated that he intends to remain on and finish his term as chancellor.