Marine Le Pen to Run in 2027 French Presidential Election Despite Conviction

Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Rally party, is set to run in next year’s French presidential election after a Paris appeals court upheld her embezzlement conviction but shortened an electoral ban. Despite having to wear an ankle bracelet for the next ten months of campaigning, Le Pen said there was no longer any scenario in which she would not run. The 57-year-old has a strong lead in early opinion polls, with 36 per cent of the vote in the first round, according to an Ifop survey for LCI and Le Figaro.

However, analysts caution against ruling out her opponents so early, and expect more from opponents on both the Left and the Right. Centrist Édouard Philippe placed around 19 per cent and Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the Left took 15 per cent. The elections to succeed Emmanuel Macron, who cannot run again after two consecutive terms, are not scheduled until 18 April, with a second round to follow in May if no candidate secures a majority.

Gregoire Roos, director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes at Chatham House, said the next few months will make clear which trends sustain and which ones are smashed out. He also suggested that Le Pen’s strong and early lead for RN could end up its greatest weakness, dooming them to underperform later on, as France’s recent electoral history has shown. Dr David Lees, reader in French Studies at the University of Warwick, believed it was Philippe, from the centre-right, who could muddle Le Pen’s shot at election.

Dr Emile Chabal, a specialist on contemporary French politics at the University of Edinburgh, added that Le Pen still lacks vote transfers and suffers from a credibility deficit. Le Pen’s conviction may also impact her campaign, with some voters potentially turned off by her criminal record. However, others may see her as an outsider running against the establishment, which could play to her favour.

The visual aid of an ankle tag could also be used to her advantage, as it may make her appear as though she is going against the system. Le Pen still depends on the eventual ruling of France’s supreme court, the Cour de Cassation, which could still obstruct her path to office. If the court rules against her, Jordan Bardella could still step up, but would face significant logistical challenges.

Le Pen also faces internal challenges within her party, particularly with regards to pension reforms. RN has suggested a legal retirement age between 60 and 62, while Bardella has floated scrapping the idea of a fixed legal retirement age altogether. Le Pen will need to ensure clarity and consistency in messaging to avoid losing voters to dissonance.

Dr Chabal said Bardella would now have to fall back in line behind his mentor and sharply curtail his independent ambitions. Some have suggested that he could launch a campaign on his own, but this is unlikely so close to the 2027 presidential election. It’s more plausible that he will try and depose Le Pen after the election in the likely event of her defeat next year.