A severe El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to hit Latin America between October and December, exacerbating existing agricultural supply chain disruptions in the region. According to Maximo Torero, chief economist of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the region faces a “double blow” of extreme weather stress and diminished access to crucial agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and hybrid seeds.
These inputs have been impacted by an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Iran war. Torero emphasized the potential severity of the situation, stating that there is a high probability that this El Niño will be as intense as the one in 2015.
The climatic effects of El Niño are anticipated to be uneven across Latin America. Peru, for instance, is projected to experience flooding along its northern coast, while its highlands grapple with water scarcity. A similar pattern of contrasting conditions is likely to manifest between northern and southern Chile.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center recently estimated an 81% probability of a “very strong” El Niño, potentially ranking among the most severe since 1950. In response to this warning, Torero urged governments to formulate policies capable of addressing both extreme conditions concurrently.
Torero also recommended investments in preparedness, citing that every dollar dedicated to this effort yields a $7 return, compared to just $3 for reactive measures. He suggested focusing on infrastructure to prevent transport disruptions, developing resilient seeds, and accelerating harvests to mitigate damage from storms.
The FAO identified the Central American Dry Corridor, a tropical forest region on the Pacific Coast, as a very high-risk zone during El Niño. Governments and farmers in the region are bracing for the potential impacts of this severe weather phenomenon.
