The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the 2026 Peace Prize winner on Friday at 11am CEST, a decision that follows last year’s controversy when Venezuelan activist Maria Corina Machado presented the award to Donald Trump in a symbolic gesture. The incident has prompted experts to warn that the committee may be cautious about awarding the prize to a figure who could face pressure from the former U.S. president.
Among the names highlighted as potential recipients are Trump himself, who has largely stayed silent ahead of the announcement, and Pope Leo XIV, who has called for renewed negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The Sudanese Emergency Response Rooms, a volunteer‑led network that has stepped in after cuts to international aid, has also been cited as a frontrunner, with odds of 3/1.
Other contenders include Ukrainian children’s rights activist Mykola Kuleba, whose organisation Save Ukraine has rescued 1,763 children from conflict zones; the Committee to Protect Journalists, which defends the safety of reporters worldwide; and Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late Russian opposition leader, who has become a vocal critic of the Kremlin. Doctors Without Borders, known for its work in over 70 countries, and Ugandan climate activist Vanessa Nakate, a UNICEF goodwill ambassador, are also on the shortlist.
Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, has been noted for his diplomatic stance against U.S. trade pressures and has appeared briefly as a favourite on the Kalshi market. Bookmakers have listed most of these figures with odds ranging from 12/1 to 15/2, reflecting the wide range of possibilities as the committee prepares its decision.
