Donald Trump continues to deny the sharp decline in his polling numbers as the 2026 mid‑term election approaches. Independent and Democratic‑aligned surveys taken since mid‑September show the former president’s personal approval hovering between 34 % and 42 %, a figure that is low for a candidate at the top of the ballot and problematic for Republicans who rely on his name to drive turnout.
In a Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump dismissed the polls as “always underestimated MAGA” and cited a McLaughlin & Associates poll that reported a 49 % job approval rating. The poll, however, found a 48 % combined approval rating, with only 35 % of respondents approving both Trump and his policies. On the congressional ballot, Republicans trail 48 % to 43 %.
Trump’s hope for a Republican victory rests on two shaky assumptions: that loyalist voters will turn out in the same numbers as in presidential years, and that his poll numbers are accurate despite a 10‑point gap from the RealClearPolitics average. Forecasts from FiftyPlusOne and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, however, give Democrats a 52‑seat majority and a 72 % chance of winning the Senate, respectively.
The Republican caucus is already feeling the pressure. Texas Governor James Talarico is pulling ahead of Ken Paxton in a New York Times/Siena College poll, and Paxton has complained that the Trump‑led convention has damaged his campaign. Across the country, candidates are removing references to Trump from their websites and campaign literature, and senators such as Jim Justice have warned that Democrats have “real momentum.”
While Trump can continue to cite GOP pollsters until November, his allies are not buying the narrative. The reality of the polling data is forcing the White House to confront the possibility that the party’s prospects in the mid‑terms are far less bright than the president claims.
