Islamist extremist violence in Africa’s Sahel region is projected to reach historic highs this year, according to new figures compiled by the conflict monitor Acled. The data show a sharp rise in incidents involving jihadist groups across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
Acled reports that attacks with jihadist groups in the three countries surged from 63 in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025. So far this year, 2,145 events have already been logged, and if current trends continue, an annual total of well over 3,000 is likely.
In April, a joint offensive in Mali by the al‑Qaida‑linked Jama’at Nusrat ul‑Islam wa al‑Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg‑dominated Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) targeted strategic towns, government forces and their Russian auxiliaries. The operation included ambushes, car bombs, drones and raids, inflicting significant casualties. The attack also saw the death of Mali’s defence minister in a suicide strike and the seizure of the strategic city of Kidal, a former stronghold of the FLA.
JNIM has claimed more than 130 attacks in 2026 in Burkina Faso, striking closer to Ouagadougou, while in Niger it has claimed at least 17 attacks but remains less active than the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. The other main group in sub‑Saharan Africa with links to al‑Qaida is al‑Shabaab, which has dominated much of Somalia’s rural areas for many years and has been responsible for thousands of deaths in recent months.
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