Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to New Delhi, his first in seven years, is expected to advance a diplomatic thaw between the two regional giants, yet business ties remain uncertain. The trip, scheduled around the BRICS summit, has not yet confirmed a meeting between Xi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a key factor in determining the future direction of bilateral relations.
Historical tensions, from the 1962 border war to the 2020 skirmish that killed 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers, have shaped a wary relationship. Recent years have seen some improvement, especially after Modi’s 2023 visit to China, but analysts note a persistent trust deficit. Fudan University expert Lin Minwang cautions that dramatic progress is unlikely, while Observer Research Foundation’s Harsh Pant highlights the high level of mistrust between the nations.
India has eased some restrictions on Chinese investment in sectors such as electronics, capital goods and solar cells, and is exploring faster approval for joint ventures. The country has approved projects like a manufacturing partnership between Dixon Technologies and Vivo Mobile. However, major Chinese firms such as BYD and Great Wall Motor have postponed planned investments after facing increased scrutiny by New Delhi, and Chinese authorities have tightened oversight on investments involving sophisticated manufacturing and high‑end technology.
Visa delays and equipment hold‑ups have further strained economic ties. Indian businesspeople report difficulties obtaining visas, and components needed for key sectors have been held at Chinese customs for extended periods. India has also declined to link Alipay to its instant‑payment system due to national‑security concerns and is considering an investigation into Xiaomi for alleged irregularities. A meeting between Modi and Xi could help dismantle some of these barriers, but its success will depend on both leaders’ willingness to align political and economic interests.
