President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have fallen to historic lows, threatening the Republican Party’s narrow majorities in Congress as the midterm campaign enters its final two months.
In the House, many analysts now favor Democrats, who would gain control of committees and subpoena power, potentially opening investigations into the Trump administration. A Democratic victory would also make it harder for the White House to advance its legislative agenda.
The Senate race remains more uncertain. A Democratic takeover would give the party the ability to block Trump’s executive and judicial nominees, including any future Supreme Court pick, but the GOP currently holds a slim majority and could gain seats through redistricting.
Recent Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Trump’s net disapproval nearly double that of the 2018 midterms, with voters unhappy about the economy and the war with Iran. Democratic voters are more enthusiastic, and registered voters favor Democratic congressional candidates by five percentage points—a pattern seen in recent special and primary elections.
Republicans retain structural advantages such as larger overall campaign reserves and a $400 million super PAC. The GOP is also attempting to shift focus from Trump by attacking progressive candidates as far left. With eight weeks to go, the question remains whether Trump can reverse voters’ negative views before Republicans face losses at the ballot box.
