Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is a leading contender for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, according to a prediction market that gave him a 14 percent chance on October 9. The market, run by Kalshi, also placed the United Nations–affiliated Doctors Without Borders and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms ahead of Carney, while former U.S. president Donald Trump held a 2 percent chance.
Trump has repeatedly complained that the Norwegian Nobel Committee has not awarded him the medal, despite his claims of ending eight wars. He cited the 2025 winner, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who presented her prize to him in January after the United States helped remove Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Trump has also portrayed himself as a peace broker while simultaneously escalating tensions with Iran, calling the country an imminent threat.
The trade dispute between the United States and Canada has intensified in recent weeks. After a failed trade negotiation, Trump imposed a 50 percent tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, prompting Canada to impose “dollar‑for‑dollar” tariffs on American products such as steel, electronics and dairy. The U.S. administration also banned certain Canadian dairy products, motorcycles and alcoholic beverages, which Canadian officials described as modest compared to other measures.
Amid the conflict, Carney has urged continued cooperation on broader issues, stating that Canada and the United States must work together and compartmentalize disagreements. He praised a 2024 speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos where he rebuked Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on European allies and called for a new global order based on human rights, sustainable development and sovereignty.
